Fraunhofer ISE Study 2024
Heating technologies in buildings in Germany, scenario technology open
Energy-Charts.info - last update: 12/14/2024, 4:01 PM GMT+1
Extreme Values
| Source | Minimum | Year | Maximum | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil boiler | 2 % | 2045 | 21 % | 2025 |
| Gas boiler | 14 % | 2045 | 45 % | 2025 |
| Wood boiler | 7 % | 2045 | 14 % | 2025 |
| Hydrogen boiler | 0 % | 2032 | 1 % | 2045 |
| CHP (CCGT) | 3 % | 2025 | 6 % | 2035 |
| Heating networks | 13 % | 2025 | 19 % | 2045 |
| Heat pump | 3 % | 2025 | 53 % | 2045 |
| Fuel Cell H2 | 0 % | 2045 | 0 % | 2030 |
Scenarios
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| Technology open | The 'Technology Open' scenario describes the cost-optimal transformation pathway of the energy system toward climate neutrality by 2045. The model assumes high degrees of freedom in the choice of technologies used. These are only limited by upper bounds, such as future technology availability, or by expansion-limiting or local framework conditions. |
| Efficiency | In the 'Efficiency' scenario, behavioral changes in the building and transport sectors, such as more efficient heating and a shift away from motorized individual transport, lead to the use of more sustainable modes of transport, such as public local and long-distance transport, reducing energy demand. At the same time, additional areas are made available for the expansion of renewable energy sources. As a result, the CO2 budget target can be undershot by 2045, thereby exceeding climate goals. A target of saving 1,000 Mt CO2 equivalents has been set. |
| Persistence | The 'Persistence' scenario describes a world where there is greater resistance to key energy transition technologies. For example, the use of gas heating in residential buildings and gas boilers in industry is maintained for a longer period. Conventional combustion engines continue to be preferred in the transport sector. Technologies such as wind turbines, which are seen as central to the energy transition in all analyses, face significant opposition, limiting their expansion to a small extent. |
| Robust | In the 'Robust' scenario, the German energy system is optimized in a world where shock events arise due to geopolitical uncertainties and the advancing effects of climate change. Political instability and more cautious international cooperation make imports of hydrogen and synthetic energy carriers available in smaller quantities and at higher prices. Hypothetical political conflicts in Asia reduce the availability of photovoltaic systems and battery storage, slowing their expansion in Germany. The effects of climate change are incorporated through two years of cold winters with increased heating demand and two years of lower wind power generation. Additionally, reduced biomass availability is assumed. |
Fraunhofer ISE Study 2024: Paths to a Climate-Neutral Energy System
Open technology scenario: Cost-optimised transformation without supporting or aggravating boundary conditions.
Disclaimer: Transformation paths and construction/dismantling rates represent results of the mathematical optimization with REMod for the study "Paths to a climate-neutral energy system" and are not to be interpreted as a forecast.
Data Source: Fraunhofer ISE
Last Update: 12/14/2024, 4:01 PM GMT+1
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